Darya Zheleznyakova vs. Melissa Mullins II Fight Prediction

The octagon heads to Baku, Azerbaijan, for UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree on June 21, 2025, delivering a bantamweight showdown that promises fireworks. Darya Zheleznyakova, the Russian striker, looks to settle the score against England’s Melissa Mullins in a rematch that carries high stakes for both fighters. With their contrasting styles and a history of bad blood from their 2022 clash, this prelim bout is a must-watch for MMA fans and bettors alike.

Darya Zheleznyakova

Darya Zheleznyakova, dubbed «The Iron Lady,» brings a 9-2-0 record to the cage, with five knockouts showcasing her devastating stand-up game. A former Russian kickboxing champion, she thrives in the pocket, unloading crisp combinations and heavy hooks that can turn the lights out. Her 5’9” frame and 68-inch reach give her an edge in striking range, and her cardio allows her to maintain a relentless pace. Zheleznyakova’s recent UFC run shows promise, with a unanimous decision win over Montserrat Rendon in March 2024, but a submission loss to Ailín Pérez in September 2024 exposed her ground game vulnerabilities. Her mental toughness will be tested after Pérez’s post-fight antics, which added fuel to her fire for redemption.

Zheleznyakova’s path to victory hinges on keeping the fight standing, where her kickboxing pedigree can shine. Her training at MMA Factory in Paris has sharpened her clinch work, but her Achilles’ heel remains her takedown defense. Against grapplers, she’s struggled, as seen in her 2022 loss to Mullins. With a chip on her shoulder and a new UFC contract on the line, expect Zheleznyakova to come out swinging, aiming to prove she belongs among the bantamweight elite.

Melissa Mullins

Melissa Mullins, known as «No Mess,» carries a 7-1-0 record and a #15 ranking in the bantamweight division. A versatile fighter, Mullins excels in wrestling and BJJ, using slick takedowns and a punishing ground-and-pound to overwhelm opponents. Her 5’7” frame may give up a slight reach advantage, but her relentless pressure and durability make her a nightmare in the clinch and on the mat. Mullins’ UFC tenure includes a decision win over Irina Alekseeva (October 2023) and a TKO victory against Klaudia Syguła (November 2024), though a knockout loss to Nora Cornolle in April 2024 highlighted her susceptibility to clean strikers.

Mullins’ mental game is rock-solid, with a knack for staying composed under pressure. Her training at Lions Gym in Coventry has honed her grappling, but her stand-up relies heavily on basic boxing, which can falter against elite strikers like Zheleznyakova. With a prior win over her Russian foe, Mullins enters with confidence, but she’ll need to avoid prolonged striking exchanges to impose her grappling-heavy game plan. Her ability to dictate the fight’s location will be key to securing another finish.

Predicting the Fight: Zheleznyakova vs. Mullins

This bantamweight rematch is a classic striker-versus-grappler showdown, with their 2022 encounter at Ares FC 9 setting the stage. Back then, Mullins capitalized on Zheleznyakova’s weak takedown defense, dragging her to the mat and finishing with a vicious ground-and-pound TKO in under five minutes. Fast forward to 2025, and both fighters have evolved, but the core dynamics remain. Zheleznyakova’s best shot is to keep the fight standing, where her crisp kickboxing and heavy hands could exploit Mullins’ less polished striking. If she stuffs early takedowns and controls the center of the octagon, she could rack up points or land a fight-ending bomb. However, her 50% loss rate by submission and TKO screams vulnerability if the fight hits the canvas.

Mullins, meanwhile, will look to replicate her 2022 game plan: close the distance, secure a takedown, and unleash her ground-and-pound. Her wrestling is a cut above, and her ability to chain takedowns keeps opponents guessing. Yet, her knockout loss to Cornolle exposed a chink in her armor—clean strikers with good footwork can catch her coming forward. Zheleznyakova’s reach and striking volume could pose problems if Mullins can’t close the gap early. The X-factor here is Zheleznyakova’s mental state after her humbling loss to Pérez. If she’s rattled, Mullins could capitalize on hesitation. Conversely, a fired-up Zheleznyakova might come out with newfound aggression, making this a tighter contest than the odds suggest. An intriguing subplot is the personal stakes—Zheleznyakova’s desire for revenge could push her to new heights, while Mullins aims to prove her first win was no fluke. Expect Mullins to push for takedowns early, but if Zheleznyakova keeps it standing for two rounds, she could steal a decision or land a highlight-reel KO.

Our Prediction: Melissa Mullins wins via TKO in Round 2. Mullins’ grappling advantage and proven ability to finish Zheleznyakova on the ground tilt the scales in her favor. Her path to victory lies in dragging the fight to the mat, where Zheleznyakova struggles. While the Russian could make it competitive in the stand-up, Mullins’ durability and pressure should secure another stoppage.

• Mullins by TKO (-150): Her ground-and-pound is a proven weapon, especially against Zheleznyakova.
• Zheleznyakova by Decision (+400): A longshot bet if she keeps the fight standing and outpoints Mullins.
• Fight Goes the Distance (+200): Possible if Zheleznyakova improves her takedown defense and forces a striking battle.

Владимир Сапаров

Большой поклонник бокса: занимаюсь и слежу за ним более 20 лет. Также, интересуюсь крупными событиями в мире мма и кулачных боев.