Mohammed Usman vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab Fight Prediction

The octagon is set to ignite on June 21, 2025, as UFC Fight Night in Baku, Azerbaijan, delivers a heavyweight clash brimming with intrigue. Mohammed Usman, a seasoned grinder, squares off against Hamdy Abdelwahab, a wrecking ball with Olympic pedigree. This showdown promises a collision of styles and raw power, with both fighters hungry to carve their path in the division.

Mohammed Usman

Mohammed Usman, dubbed «The Motor,» is a relentless force built on stamina and versatility. Standing at 6’2” with a 79-inch reach, the Nigerian-American leverages his wrestling roots to dictate pace. His 10-4 record includes four knockouts and two submissions, showcasing his ability to finish fights across multiple dimensions. Usman’s UFC journey, highlighted by a TUF 30 knockout win over Zac Pauga, proves he can handle pressure. His durability shines in prolonged scraps, averaging 1.26 takedowns per 15 minutes with 50% accuracy. Recent victories over Jake Collier and Junior Tafa by decision underline his knack for outlasting opponents, while his long reach helps him pepper foes from distance.

However, Usman’s path hasn’t been flawless. Back-to-back unanimous decision losses to Thomas Petersen and Mick Parkin in 2024 exposed cracks against elite grapplers. His 48% striking accuracy and 54% defense suggest he’s not untouchable in stand-up wars. Mentally, Usman remains a rock, backed by his brother, former UFC champion Kamaru Usman, but his vulnerability to high-level wrestling could spell trouble. Entering this bout, he’s physically primed but carries the weight of needing a rebound to stay relevant in the division.

Hamdy Abdelwahab

Hamdy Abdelwahab, «The Hammer,» is a 32-year-old Egyptian phenom whose 4-0-1 record belies his devastating potential. A 14-time African wrestling champion and 2016 Olympian, Abdelwahab’s grappling is world-class. His 6’2” frame and 73-inch reach pack explosive power, with all five career wins coming by knockout. His lone UFC appearance, though overturned due to a doping violation, saw him dominate Don’Tale Mayes before the result was nullified. Abdelwahab’s 100% takedown accuracy in that fight and 50% striking precision hint at his ability to blend brute force with technical prowess. His compact build makes him a bulldozer in the clinch, where he can ragdoll opponents.

Yet, Abdelwahab’s journey is not without hurdles. A nearly three-year layoff since July 2022 raises questions about ring rust, especially after his doping suspension. With only five pro MMA fights, his experience pales against seasoned veterans like Usman. While his mental toughness is forged in Olympic arenas, adapting to the UFC’s relentless pace after such a hiatus is a gamble. Physically, he’s a specimen, but his cardio in a grueling three-rounder remains untested. Abdelwahab steps into the cage as a dangerous enigma, poised to make a statement or falter under pressure.

Prediction for Mohammed Usman vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab

This heavyweight tilt hinges on a battle of grappling prowess and striking opportunism. Usman’s game plan will likely center on using his 79-inch reach to keep Abdelwahab at bay, peppering with jabs and body shots to sap the Egyptian’s gas tank. His wrestling, while solid, may struggle against Abdelwahab’s Olympic-level takedown artistry. Usman’s best shot lies in dragging the fight into deep waters, where his endurance could outshine an opponent potentially slowed by rust. If he can stuff early takedowns and force a stand-up brawl, his experience and reach advantage might tilt the scales, possibly landing a counter that rocks Abdelwahab.

Conversely, Abdelwahab’s path to victory runs through his wrestling dominance and devastating power. Expect him to shoot for takedowns early, aiming to ground Usman and unleash ground-and-pound. His five knockout wins prove he can end fights with one swing, and if he catches Usman in a sloppy exchange, the lights could go out. However, his long absence raises concerns about his ability to maintain intensity over 15 minutes. If Abdelwahab secures top control, he could grind out a decision by smothering Usman, but failing to finish early might expose him to Usman’s late-round resilience.

The stylistic clash is tantalizing: Usman’s reach and cardio versus Abdelwahab’s explosive wrestling and knockout threat. A fascinating wrinkle is Abdelwahab’s doping history, which adds scrutiny to his performance and could affect his mental focus under the Baku lights. Usman’s recent losses make this a must-win, injecting desperation into his approach. The fight’s placement on the prelims underscores its stakes—both men need a highlight-reel moment to climb the rankings.

Analyzing the matchup, Abdelwahab’s superior wrestling and power give him the edge if he can impose his game early. However, Usman’s durability and reach make him a live dog, especially if the bout extends past the first round. Expect Abdelwahab to hunt for takedowns, potentially securing top position to rack up control time. If Usman weathers the storm, he could turn the tide in rounds two or three, using his jab to frustrate a tiring Abdelwahab. The most likely outcome sees Abdelwahab’s grappling carrying him to a decision, but a knockout remains plausible given his track record.

Our Prediction: Hamdy Abdelwahab wins by unanimous decision.

• Abdelwahab by KO/TKO (3.50): His five knockout wins make this a tempting bet if he lands clean.
• Fight goes the distance (1.80): Both fighters’ durability suggests a decision is likely.
• Usman by decision (5.00): A longshot worth considering if Usman uses his reach to outpoint Abdelwahab.

Владимир Сапаров

Большой поклонник бокса: занимаюсь и слежу за ним более 20 лет. Также, интересуюсь крупными событиями в мире мма и кулачных боев.