Ismail Naurdiev vs. Jun Yong Park Fight Prediction

The octagon is set to ignite on June 21, 2025, as UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree lands in Baku, Azerbaijan, for a historic debut at Baku Crystal Hall. Among the preliminary card’s electrifying matchups, the middleweight clash between Ismail Naurdiev and Jun Yong Park stands out as a battle of contrasting styles. With Naurdiev’s relentless wrestling meeting Park’s razor-sharp boxing, this fight promises a tactical showdown that could steal the show. Let’s dive into the fighters’ profiles, dissect their strengths and weaknesses, and break down the path to victory in this high-stakes 185-pound scrap.

Ismail Naurdiev

At 28 years old, Ismail Naurdiev, dubbed the «Austrian Wonderboy,» brings a ferocious grappling game to the middleweight division. With a 24-7-0 record (2-2-0 in UFC), the Moroccan-born Austrian has carved out a reputation as a finish-first fighter, boasting 12 knockouts and six submissions for a 75% finish rate. His recent unanimous decision win over Bruno Silva at UFC 308 (October 26, 2024) showcased his ability to control seasoned opponents, blending punishing ground-and-pound with slick submission attempts like rear-naked chokes and triangles. Naurdiev’s striking arsenal, featuring spinning kicks and flying knees, adds a dangerous wildcard to his game, making him a threat in any phase. His 73% takedown defense and 67% significant strike defense highlight his durability, while 15 first-round finishes underscore his explosive start potential.

However, Naurdiev’s path isn’t without hurdles. Both of his UFC losses—unanimous decisions to Chance Rencountre (July 6, 2019) and Sean Brady (February 29, 2020)—exposed struggles in maintaining control against savvy decision-makers. His 40% takedown accuracy suggests challenges in imposing his wrestling on elite strikers, and an eight-month layoff since his last fight could raise questions about ring rust. Mentally, Naurdiev appears resilient, thriving under pressure, but his relative inactivity compared to his opponent might test his sharpness early. If he can dictate the pace and drag Park to the mat, his ground dominance could be the key to a statement win.

Jun Yong Park

Jun Yong Park, the 34-year-old South Korean known as «The Iron Turtle,» enters with an 18-6-0 record (7-3-0 in UFC) and a reputation for crisp boxing and opportunistic grappling. Fresh off a split-decision victory over Brad Tavares (October 12, 2024), Park has won eight of his last ten fights, including three submissions in 2022-2023 against Albert Duraev, Denis Tiuliulin, and Joseph Holmes. His 52% significant strike accuracy and 47% takedown accuracy make him a dual-threat fighter, capable of outstriking opponents or locking in submissions like the anaconda or rear-naked choke. Park’s record-setting 254 head strikes against Gregory Rodrigues in 2020 highlight his relentless volume, while his ability to submit grapplers like Duraev shows his ground game isn’t just defensive.

Despite his strengths, Park’s vulnerabilities are notable. His 58% takedown defense has been exploited by elite grapplers, as seen in his split-decision loss to Andre Muniz (December 9, 2023) and a submission defeat to Anthony Hernandez in his UFC debut (August 31, 2019). A knockout loss to Rodrigues (October 23, 2021) exposed fragility under heavy pressure, and his average fight time of 11:48 suggests potential cardio concerns if pushed hard early. Park’s mental toughness is solid, but at 34, he may face a slight disadvantage in endurance against the younger Naurdiev. Keeping the fight upright will be crucial for Park to leverage his striking edge.

Pregame Analysis: Ismail Naurdiev vs. Jun Yong Park

This middleweight showdown is a classic grappler-versus-striker chess match, with each fighter holding the tools to disrupt the other’s game plan. Naurdiev’s path to victory hinges on closing the distance and dragging Park to the canvas, where his ground-and-pound and submission game can shine. His 73% takedown defense gives him confidence to engage without fear of being taken down, but his 40% takedown accuracy means he’ll need clean entries to avoid eating counters from Park’s precise jab. Naurdiev’s spinning kicks and flying knees could catch Park off guard in stand-up exchanges, but his real edge lies in chaining takedowns to control time on the mat. If he can sap Park’s energy early, a submission finish—perhaps a rear-naked choke—becomes a real possibility, especially given Park’s history of being caught by grapplers like Hernandez.

Park, on the other hand, will look to keep this fight on the feet, where his boxing shines. His 52% strike accuracy and high-volume output make him a nightmare for opponents who can’t close the distance. Park’s ability to mix in takedowns (47% accuracy) adds a layer of unpredictability, as he’s shown he can turn the tables on grapplers with submissions, as seen against Duraev and Tiuliulin. However, his 58% takedown defense is a glaring weakness against a wrestler of Naurdiev’s caliber. Park’s split-decision win over Tavares showed he can grind out victories, but his loss to Muniz revealed struggles when controlled on the ground. If Park can stuff early takedown attempts and force Naurdiev into a striking battle, he could rack up points or land a fight-ending combination.

The fight’s outcome likely depends on who imposes their game plan first. Naurdiev’s youth and explosive starts (15 first-round finishes) give him an edge in early aggression, but Park’s experience and composure under pressure could see him weather the storm. Both fighters’ recent decision wins suggest this bout may go the distance, especially if Park neutralizes Naurdiev’s takedowns. An intriguing subplot is the historical context: this is UFC’s first event in Baku, and the electric atmosphere at Baku Crystal Hall could push both fighters to empty their tanks. Naurdiev’s underdog odds (+180 to +185) offer value for bettors banking on his wrestling, while Park’s favorite status (-220 to -235) reflects his striking reliability. Expect a tactical battle with bursts of violence, potentially hinging on a critical scramble or a late-round surge.

Our Prediction: The fight goes the distance, with Jun Yong Park winning by unanimous decision. Park’s striking precision and takedown defense should allow him to keep the fight upright, outpointing Naurdiev over three rounds.

• Naurdiev by Submission (+600): A high-risk, high-reward bet if Naurdiev secures a takedown and capitalizes on Park’s ground vulnerabilities.
• Fight Goes Over 2.5 Rounds (-150): Both fighters’ recent decision wins and durable styles make a full fight likely.
• Park by Decision (-110): The safest bet, aligning with Park’s ability to control the fight on the feet and avoid submissions.

Владимир Сапаров

Большой поклонник бокса: занимаюсь и слежу за ним более 20 лет. Также, интересуюсь крупными событиями в мире мма и кулачных боев.