Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Azat Maksum Fight Prediction

The octagon is set to ignite on June 21, 2025, as Baku, Azerbaijan, hosts UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree. Among the electrifying matchups, the flyweight showdown between Tagir Ulanbekov and Azat Maksum promises a clash of contrasting styles. With Ulanbekov’s grappling prowess facing off against Maksum’s striking flair, this bout is a must-watch for MMA fans and bettors alike.

Tagir Ulanbekov

At 33 years old, Tagir Ulanbekov brings a wealth of experience to the cage with a professional record of 16-2-0, including a 5-1-0 stint in the UFC. Hailing from Dagestan, Russia, this combat sambo specialist has carved a reputation as a ground-game maestro, with 50% of his victories (8 out of 16) coming via submission. His recent form is impressive, riding a three-fight win streak, including a unanimous decision over Clayton Carpenter in January 2025 and submission wins over Cody Durden and Nate Maness. Ulanbekov’s ability to chain takedowns and lock in chokes, like his signature guillotine and rear-naked choke, makes him a nightmare on the mat. His mental toughness, forged in the high-pressure environment of Eagles MMA alongside legends like Khabib Nurmagomedov, ensures he remains composed under fire.

However, Ulanbekov’s Achilles’ heel lies in his stand-up game, where he’s secured just one knockout (6% of wins). Both of his losses—unanimous decisions to Tim Elliott and Zhalgas Zhumagulov—highlight vulnerabilities when opponents keep the fight standing or neutralize his grappling. While his cardio holds up well, allowing him to grind out decisions, Ulanbekov must avoid prolonged striking exchanges against a puncher like Maksum. His recent activity, with a fight just five months prior, suggests he’s in peak condition, ready to impose his will on the canvas.

Azat Maksum

Azat Maksum, a 30-year-old Kazakh sensation, enters the octagon with a 17-1-0 record and a 1-1-0 UFC ledger. Known as “Qazaq,” Maksum’s versatility shines through with 29% of his wins by knockout (5 out of 17) and 41% by submission (7 out of 17). His UFC debut saw a split-decision victory over Tyson Nam in July 2023, but a unanimous decision loss to Charles Johnson in February 2024 exposed some cracks, particularly in his late-round stamina. Maksum’s freestyle wrestling background and jiu-jitsu mastery make him a dual threat, capable of landing heavy low kicks and slick hooks or snatching submissions like the Brabo choke. His youth and hunger to climb the flyweight ranks fuel his mental resilience, despite the setback against Johnson.

Yet, Maksum’s long layoff—over a year since his last fight—raises questions about ring rust, especially against an active veteran like Ulanbekov. His loss to Johnson revealed struggles against opponents who can outwork him over three rounds, and his UFC experience remains limited compared to Ulanbekov’s. While Maksum’s striking gives him an edge on the feet, he’ll need to stay sharp to avoid being dragged into Ulanbekov’s grappling web. His ability to mix crisp punches with defensive wrestling will be crucial to keep this fight in his preferred domain.

Predicting Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Azat Maksum

This flyweight clash is a classic grappler-versus-striker showdown, with Ulanbekov’s ground control pitted against Maksum’s dynamic striking. Expect Ulanbekov to open with probing front kicks and jabs, looking to close the distance for a takedown. His game plan will likely revolve around chaining wrestling sequences to drag Maksum to the mat, where he can hunt for submissions or rack up control time. Ulanbekov’s experience in the UFC and his knack for dictating pace through grappling give him a clear edge if the fight hits the ground. His recent performances suggest he’s honed his ability to mix pressure with patience, potentially wearing Maksum down as the rounds progress.

Maksum, however, won’t make it easy. His quick-twitch striking, particularly his punishing low kicks and sharp two-punch combos, could disrupt Ulanbekov’s rhythm early. If Maksum can stuff the initial takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, his overhand rights and sneaky knees in close quarters could spell trouble for Ulanbekov, who’s shown vulnerability in striking exchanges. Maksum’s wrestling pedigree should help him scramble back to his feet, but his long layoff might dull his reflexes, especially against a relentless grappler. The key battleground will be the clinch, where Ulanbekov’s trips and throws could counter Maksum’s attempts to break free and land bombs.

An intriguing subplot is the cultural stakes—Ulanbekov, a Dagestani, and Maksum, a Kazakh, carry regional pride into this historic UFC event in Azerbaijan. The crowd’s energy could amplify both fighters’ performances, but Ulanbekov’s familiarity with high-pressure environments might give him a mental edge. If Maksum lands a heavy shot early, he could stun Ulanbekov and push for a knockout in the first or second round. However, Ulanbekov’s durability and superior grappling IQ make a late submission or decision victory more likely. The fight’s outcome hinges on whether Maksum can keep it standing long enough to capitalize on his power or if Ulanbekov can impose his ground game before fatigue sets in.

Our Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov wins by submission in the third round.

Other betting options:

• Ulanbekov by Decision (-150): A safer bet if Maksum’s takedown defense holds up, leading to a grinding decision.
• Over 2.5 Rounds (+110): Both fighters’ durability and styles suggest a high chance of the fight going the distance.
• Maksum by KO/TKO (+500): A high-risk, high-reward bet for those believing in Maksum’s striking power to catch Ulanbekov early.

Владимир Сапаров

Большой поклонник бокса: занимаюсь и слежу за ним более 20 лет. Также, интересуюсь крупными событиями в мире мма и кулачных боев.